Gold Market News Analysis:

Gold prices are trading in a narrow range near $2636.16 per ounce in early Asian trading on Tuesday, October 1st. Gold slipped nearly 1% on Monday, briefly dipping below the $2630 mark to $2624.63 per ounce, a level coinciding with the 10-day moving average and its lowest point since September 24th. This decline was driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks, which dampened market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November. The resulting rebound in the US dollar and Treasury yields put downward pressure on gold. However, ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts and the global trend towards rate cuts by central banks continue to provide support, with gold recovering to around $2634.42 by the end of the trading day.

Fueled by the US's accommodative monetary policy and heightened tensions in the Middle East, gold has experienced a historic surge recently. In the third quarter of 2024, gold prices have risen by over 13%, marking their best performance since early 2020 and the fourth consecutive quarter of gains. Last Thursday, gold reached a record high of $2685.49, primarily driven by the Fed's half-percentage-point rate cut and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. It's important to note that with gold's upward momentum now faltering, there's an increased risk of further price corrections.

Today's economic calendar features the release of Eurozone CPI data for September, which warrants attention. Key data points from the US include the September ISM Manufacturing PMI and August JOLTs job openings. Investors also await this week's ADP employment report and non-farm payroll figures, while continuing to monitor geopolitical developments and statements from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold Technical Analysis:

Daily Chart: After several consecutive days of decline, gold has fallen below the support of the 10-day moving average (MA10), raising the risk of a bearish crossover in the short-term moving averages. The next support level to watch is around the 20-day moving average (MA20), near the $2600 mark. Additionally, it's important to monitor whether the MACD indicator forms a bearish crossover this week. The non-farm payroll data released on Friday evening may provide clearer signals.

4-Hour Chart: Since hitting a record high near $2700, gold has shown a clear downward trend, forming a head and shoulders pattern. This suggests a short-term bearish bias. The short-term moving averages are currently aligned in a bearish formation, and the MACD indicator is in a bearish crossover state, accelerating towards the zero line. Therefore, trading strategies should prioritize a "sell high, buy low" approach.

Overall: For today's short-term trading, it is recommended to primarily consider shorting on rallies and buying on dips. Key resistance levels are at $2640, $2645, $2650, and $2660, while key support levels are at $2600, $2610, $2615, and $2620.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.