Crude Oil Market Analysis:

On Wednesday（May 8）, oil prices retreated slightly as investors grew skeptical about breakthroughs in trade negotiations. Additionally, renewed hopes of a nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S. helped ease supply concerns. The WTI June contract closed down $1.02 at $58.07 per barrel, a decline of 1.73%, while the Brent July contract closed down $1.03 at $61.12 per barrel, down 1.66%.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but noted rising risks of inflation and unemployment, casting further uncertainty over the economic outlook as it continues to assess the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. The FOMC stated that uncertainties around the economic outlook have increased further. Policymakers unanimously agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose last week, raising concerns over weak demand ahead of the summer driving season and pressuring both benchmark crude prices. For the week ending May 2, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2 million barrels to 438.4 million barrels, compared with market expectations of an 800,000-barrel decrease. U.S. jet fuel demand rose by 474,000 barrels per day, surpassing 2 million barrels per day for the first time since December 2019. The four-week average for jet fuel demand also hit its highest level since December 2019, increasing by 39,000 barrels per day to 1.86 million barrels per day.

The Bitop market analysis team believes that current market drivers—including OPEC+ production increases and uncertainties surrounding overseas economic prospects—are weighing on oil prices. However, geopolitical tensions continue to support bullish sentiment in the oil market. Overall, the market is moving forward amid contradictions, and prices are expected to remain in a generally weak range-bound trend. Close attention should be paid to official inventory data and negotiation progress. In the long term, stability in the global energy market depends on a balance of supply and demand and coordinated economic recovery rather than isolated events.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis:

On the daily chart, the medium-term moving average system is sloping downward, indicating a bearish trend. After oil prices touched the low of $55.20, they have experienced frequent alternation between bullish and bearish sentiment. The market is currently building bearish momentum, with potential for further decline towards the $50 level in the medium term.

On the hourly chart, the trend shows continuous upward rebound, with oil prices retesting the $60 level. The moving average system is in a bullish alignment, supporting an upward short-term trend. The rebound follows a pattern of alternating main and secondary waves, showing good continuity. In terms of momentum, the MACD lines are above the zero axis, indicating a bullish advantage, though momentum strength is somewhat lacking. Intraday oil prices are expected to continue with a high probability of upward fluctuation.

Today's crude oil trading strategy should mainly focus on buying on dips, with selling on rebounds as a secondary approach. In the short term, resistance is expected around the $59.7–$60.2 range, while support lies around the $56.5–$56.0 range.

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