On Monday (December 15th) in early Asian trading, US crude oil traded around $57.53 per barrel. Oil prices recorded a weekly decline of over 4% last week, with market focus remaining on concerns about global oversupply and the Ukraine peace agreement. Oil prices continued their decline on Friday, with both major benchmark crude oil prices closing lower and recording a weekly drop of over 4%. Market focus remained on concerns about global oversupply, which offset the support from geopolitical tensions.

Against the backdrop of persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, declining risk appetite has amplified the reaction of oil prices to negative factors. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side remains the core logic suppressing oil prices. Globally, major oil producers have not significantly revised their demand outlook upwards, while expectations of supply growth from non-major oil-producing countries continue to accumulate. The market generally believes that even if some oil-producing countries temporarily tighten production, there is still a relatively ample "buffer space" in the global crude oil system, which weakens the oil price's ability to react continuously to positive news.

From a daily chart perspective, and more specifically at local levels, crude oil is currently in a minor consolidation phase, with alternating bullish and bearish candlesticks, testing the previous low near 56. The MACD indicator is intertwined near the zero line, indicating weak bearish momentum. If the strong support level of 56 is broken, crude oil will likely enter a downward trend in the medium term.

In the short term (1H), crude oil is fluctuating around the moving average system, with the short-term objective trend showing a consolidation pattern. The narrow trading range is between 56.80 and 58.10. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is running below the zero line, indicating moderate but still dominant bearish momentum. It is expected that crude oil will consolidate within this range during the day, with effective resistance at the upper edge of the range. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is to primarily buy on dips and secondarily sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 59.0-60.0, while the key support level is 56.5-55.5.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.